Is exchange rate forecasting successful

So we have been through lots of different methods and techniques that people use to try to look at how exchange rates will move through technical analysis which looks at the short term in most cases.

However there is also other important long term forecasting that takes place, for which the technical analysis is not so well suited.

What is interesting is that forecasters are a bit like lemmings - they all fall off the cliff or they don't, in the sense that they tend to use the same data, same equations and get the same results - they will rise or fall together.

Most people believe that if you want to make profits the best way is to look at the actions of the central banks, since they are sometimes happy to both make losses and will tend to have a predictable strategy so are the easiest to second guess.

So it can be seen that many do believe there are ways to make money consistently from foreign exchange and that is part of the reason there is such a big market in it, much bigger than if just for practical considerations like needing foreign currency and reducing exposure to swings for multi-currency companies etc.

The Efficient Markets Hypothesis
Central Bank Intervention in the Markets
Operating or Economic Risk
What is an Efficient Market?
Risk and Foreign Exchange

Is exchange rate forecasting successful

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